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Lifetime risk and prevalence of lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD)

Residual lifetime risk of PAD
Prevalence of PAD

Lifetime: blue: < 10%, green: 10-20%, yellow: 20-30%, orange: 30-50%, red: >50%
Prevalence: blue: < 2%, green: 2-5%, yellow: 5-10%, orange: 10-20%, red: >20%

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) defined as an ankle-brachial index (ABI) <0.90
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Patient Characteristics:

Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg)
HDL Cholesterol (mg/dL)
click on units to change between mg/dL and mmol/L
Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)
click on units to change between mg/dL and mmol/L
Smoking Status
History of Cardiovascular Disease

About the calculator: The underlying model was built using data from six US community-based cohorts including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys as well as the US mortality rate from Vital Statistics to estimate the prevalence and 1-year risk of developing PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index (ABI) <0.90, at each year of age from birth to 80 years for White, Black, and Hispanic men and women. Markov Monte Carlo simulations in a simulated cohort of 100,000 individuals were then used to estimate lifetime risk of PAD. Prevalence and residual lifetime risk of PAD according to combinations of traditional atherosclerotic risk factors above, were developed based on odds ratios of PAD.

Matsushita K, Sang Y, Ning H, Ballew S, Chow EK, Grams et al. Lifetime risk of lower extremity peripheral artery disease defined by ankle-brachial index in the US. J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Sep 17;8(18)

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